Why Sarah Palin Still Scares The Shit Out Of Me
Last July, I responded to a claim that Palin’s July departure from the Governors mansion did not, as some suggested, signal a career-ending scandal, but rather the first step in her 2012 bid for President. I think we can all agree now, in light of her new book and media blitz, a classic first step in running for President, that she is going to run, and that quitting the office of Governor of Alaska was actually the perfect move to gain popularity in the continental-48.
It’s sometimes difficult to remember the Sarah Palin reality. Last year, 58.3 million people, or about 46% of the voting population, pulled the lever with her name on it, voting for her to be the VP for what would have been the oldest President in the history of the US, in a country where 30% of those that hold the VP office end up becoming President. I think McCain was actually the drag on the ticket, not Palin. And with Obama pursing his aggressive agenda, he is quickly losing the confidence of the voting public.
But Palin isn’t the front-runner in the 2012 primary.
Well, neither were eventual-nominees John Kerry, John McCain, and Barack Obama. There were Howard Dean, Mitt Romney and Hillary Clinton all as clear favorites at this stage. But Americans love the underdog story and I believe Palin is actually better off not being a front-runner at this stage.
When it comes down to it, candidates represent political parties which represent ideas. A very large group of people in this country want us to say no to abortion, taxes and regulation, and yes to guns, war, and big business. The point of primaries is to find the person that has the best chance at representing its party to win the election. The fact that 70% of americans believe Palin is unqualified to be President does not comfort me. She represents core GOP values, speaks to the religious base of the party, and is, for better or for worse, a unique candidate both in gender and disposition.
What drives me crazy is the people that say either that Palin could never win or that Palin is a dream-come-true for the Democratic Party. I think that couldn’t be farther from the truth. Palin projects an average-american persona in a country where 80% of citizens would consider themselves average, and even take comfort in that fact. Most people don’t like the smartest kid in the class and I don’t think the idea of Palin beating Obama is actually that crazy an outcome.
I’m not predicting a Palin win. I think President Obama is going to get healthcare reform and take a big chunk out of the uninsured population. I think the economy is going to come back, as it always does, and there will be a net-increase in jobs during Obama’s term by 2011. It will be easy to spin the stimulus plans and the recovery catalyst, despite economic policy being far too complicated to boil down to a talking point. The Dems will probably lose the super-majority in the Senate never year but will hold a 50% majority in both chambers. And I think both wars will be massively scaled back by then as well. Obama will have a great chance of winning his re-election campaign.
But I do think Palin will be the nominee and that it’s time to start treating her as a formidable opponent and not a democratic-dream-come-true. Because she isn’t. She’s a nightmare and she still scares the shit out of me.
